Opportunities and challenges brought by the great development in the field of anti-tumor

2021/01/28

In recent years, with the rapid rise of the number of cancer patients in China, the market of anti-tumor drugs continues to expand. According to the statistics of the PDB drug comprehensive database (see Figure 1), the market of anti-tumor drugs has maintained a strong growth rate of about 10% since 2012, and the growth rate from 2018 to 2019 is an astonishing 19.68%! The market size also reached a record high of 31.496 billion yuan. In 2020, the total market value of Q1-Q3 will be 22.601 billion yuan, with an estimated annual growth rate of -4.71%. However, under the background of the normalization of anti-epidemic and the implementation of the binding band volume purchase policy, it is expected that the field of anti-tumor drugs in China will still achieve great development in 2021.

 

Fig. 1 Sales and trends of antitumor drugs over the years

 

Subdivision of the anti-tumor medicine market, mainly can be divided into five major categories, respectively is a tumor disease drugs, metabolism of drug resistance, plant medicine, hormone, targeted small molecule drugs, currently accounts for about three-quarters of the total size of the market, and small molecules targeting drug sales are soaring at an extremely rapid rate, according to the comprehensive database PDB drug statistics show (see figure 2), sales of 1.867 billion yuan in 2016 was 2020 (Q1, Q3) - 5.787 billion yuan, accounting for more than 8.2% in 2016 from development to 25.61% in 2020, the outlook is promising.

 

Figure 2 Composition of drug market segments in the field of antitumor drugs 

According to the statistics of PDB Drug Comprehensive Database (see Figure 3), in the small molecule targeted drug family, we found that the cumulative sales volume of imatinib, geffitinib and ectinib reached 1.155 billion yuan in 2016, accounting for 61.8% of the entire family at that time! With the development of time, in 2019, the combined sales of the three "big brothers" is 1.787 billion yuan, accounting for 29%; In the first three quarters of 2020, the sales volume is only 1.116 billion yuan, accounting for only 19.3%.

 

At the same time, oxitinib rose to prominence in 2018, and its sales volume reached 1.004 billion yuan in 2019, accounting for 16.3% of the total. By 2020, the sales volume did not decrease but increased. It only took three quarters to surpass the sales volume in 20191, reaching an astonishing 1.17 billion yuan! That's more than imatinib, gefitinib and ectinib combined! The proportion is as high as 20.2%.

 

Fig. 3 Sales data of small molecule targeted drugs family over the years

 

"A hundred schools of thought contend" in the field of small molecule targeted drugs

 

The fierce competition in the field of small molecule targeting drugs does not only exist among the various varieties, but also within the sub-varieties, the major brands are trying their best to compete for market share. According to the PDB Comprehensive Drug Database, gefitinib was taken as an example (see Figure 4).

 

Figure 4 Sales of gefitinib by brand in recent years

 

In 2016, astrazeneca as monopolies can obtain an income of 297 million yuan, and then in 2017, qilu pharmaceutical, start with astrazeneca fight for market share, as of Q3 2020, astrazeneca in China's market share fell to 76.14%, the treatment because of the varieties decline in the overall competitiveness, its sales is only 187 million yuan, created the lowest since entering China.

 

At the same time, China is also actively participating in other circuits with increasingly fierce competition. On November 15, 2019, zebutinib, an anti-cancer drug independently developed by Baekche Shenzhou, was approved for market by the US FDA. We are gradually approaching the world's top level in the field of drug development.

 

Analysis and Summary

 

The market of the whole anti-tumor field keeps expanding and has maintained high growth rate for many years. While the pie is getting bigger and bigger, the market share of small molecule targeted drugs is also expanding, which fully demonstrates that their excellent effects and good safety are changing the treatment plan of cancer. In double benefit, under the background of thriving industry, we looked into small molecules targeting drug family, found another story, from 16 to 20 years, just less than four years, the top three industries (imatinib for the treatment, and ek) from occupies 60% market share, rapidly falling shrines, total sales is 2020 for, more than Mr Bush.

 

There are many reasons, including the deepening of human understanding of small molecule targeting drugs, best demonstrated by rapid product iteration; We have better methods and more experience to evaluate the safety and efficacy of drugs, which is the fundamental reason why gefitinib has been ordered to modify adverse reactions and precautions. Secondly, the government conducts quantitative procurement, "trading quantity for price", which reduces the medical burden of people who take anti-tumor drugs for a long time, and also partly results in the relative decline of the sales of some anti-tumor drugs.

 

With the progress of technology, I believe that tumors will be gradually conquered by modern medicine, and the per capita treatment cost will also drop significantly. At present, if tumors are detected in time and treated at an early stage, the 5-year and 10-year survival rates can be greatly improved. It is hoped that in the near future, humans will no longer regard tumors as incurable diseases and can really cure them.